Updated on Tuesday 12 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 81759 (+1002) 1385262 (+18502) 260624 (+4970) 1042879 (+12530)
United Kingdom 32065 (+210) 223060 (+3877) 0 (+0) 190995 (+3667)
Italy 30739 (+179) 219814 (+744) 106587 (+1401) 82488 (-836)
Spain 26744 (+123) 268143 (+3480) 177846 (+1407) 63553 (+1950)
France 26643 (+263) 177423 (+453) 56724 (+507) 94056 (-317)
Brazil 11519 (+396) 168331 (+5632) 67384 (+2427) 89428 (+2809)
Belgium 8707 (+51) 53449 (+368) 13697 (+55) 31045 (+262)
Germany 7661 (+92) 172576 (+697) 145617 (+1217) 19298 (-612)
Iran 6685 (+45) 109286 (+1683) 87422 (+1279) 15179 (+359)
Netherlands 5456 (+16) 42788 (+161) 0 (+0) 37332 (+145)
Canada 4993 (+123) 69981 (+1133) 32994 (+898) 31994 (+112)
China 4633 (+0) 82918 (+17) 78144 (+24) 141 (-7)
Turkey 3841 (+55) 139771 (+1114) 95780 (+3089) 40150 (-2030)
Mexico 3465 (+112) 35022 (+1562) 23100 (+1276) 8457 (+174)
Sweden 3256 (+31) 26670 (+348) 4971 (+0) 18443 (+317)
India 2294 (+82) 70768 (+3607) 22549 (+1580) 45925 (+1945)
Ecuador 2145 (+18) 29509 (-50) 3433 (+0) 23931 (-68)
Russia 2009 (+94) 221344 (+11656) 39801 (+5495) 179534 (+6067)
Peru 1961 (+72) 68822 (+1515) 22406 (+1057) 44455 (+386)
Switzerland 1845 (+12) 30344 (+39) 26800 (+200) 1699 (-173)
Ireland 1467 (+9) 23135 (+139) 17110 (+0) 4558 (+130)
Portugal 1144 (+9) 27679 (+98) 2549 (+0) 23986 (+89)
Indonesia 991 (+18) 14265 (+233) 2881 (+183) 10393 (+32)
Romania 982 (+21) 15588 (+226) 7245 (+194) 7361 (+11)
Poland 811 (+11) 16326 (+330) 5816 (+118) 9699 (+201)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 282352 (+3299) 4167933 (+73719) 1446455 (+37685)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 275296 ( +2176) 3999443 ( +38389) 1436896 ( +31851)
Wed 13 May 2020 277286 ( +1990) 4035199 ( +35756) 1467232 ( +30335)
Thu 14 May 2020 279104 ( +1817) 4068454 ( +33255) 1496038 ( +28806)
Fri 15 May 2020 280761 ( +1657) 4099343 ( +30888) 1523315 ( +27277)
Sat 16 May 2020 282271 ( +1510) 4127997 ( +28654) 1549075 ( +25760)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82918 (+17) 78144 (+24)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 4212 ( +2) 82962 ( +4) 77142 ( +1)
Wed 13 May 2020 4213 ( +2) 82965 ( +4) 77142 ( +0)
Thu 14 May 2020 4215 ( +2) 82968 ( +3) 77142 ( +0)
Fri 15 May 2020 4217 ( +2) 82971 ( +3) 77143 ( +0)
Sat 16 May 2020 4218 ( +2) 82974 ( +2) 77143 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 26744 (+123) 268143 (+3480) 177846 (+1407)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 26613 ( +89) 252436 ( +511) 180111 ( +2934)
Wed 13 May 2020 26692 ( +79) 252893 ( +458) 182880 ( +2769)
Thu 14 May 2020 26762 ( +71) 253303 ( +410) 185487 ( +2607)
Fri 15 May 2020 26825 ( +63) 253670 ( +367) 187937 ( +2450)
Sat 16 May 2020 26881 ( +56) 253999 ( +329) 190235 ( +2297)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 30739 (+179) 219814 (+744) 106587 (+1401)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 30596 ( +118) 219403 ( +639) 106697 ( +2204)
Wed 13 May 2020 30704 ( +108) 219983 ( +580) 108824 ( +2128)
Thu 14 May 2020 30801 ( +97) 220509 ( +526) 110873 ( +2049)
Fri 15 May 2020 30889 ( +88) 220986 ( +477) 112842 ( +1969)
Sat 16 May 2020 30969 ( +80) 221417 ( +431) 114730 ( +1888)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 32065 (+210) 223060 (+3877) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 31779 ( +95) 214881 ( +1939) nan ( +nan)
Wed 13 May 2020 31850 ( +71) 216658 ( +1778) nan ( +nan)
Thu 14 May 2020 31903 ( +53) 218285 ( +1627) nan ( +nan)
Fri 15 May 2020 31942 ( +39) 219772 ( +1487) nan ( +nan)
Sat 16 May 2020 31971 ( +29) 221129 ( +1357) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 81759 (+1002) 1385262 (+18502) 260624 (+4970)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 82086 ( +1074) 1393682 ( +16777) 269644 ( +10329)
Wed 13 May 2020 83096 ( +1010) 1409099 ( +15417) 279976 ( +10332)
Thu 14 May 2020 84046 ( +950) 1423216 ( +14117) 290292 ( +10316)
Fri 15 May 2020 84937 ( +891) 1436100 ( +12884) 300574 ( +10281)
Sat 16 May 2020 85773 ( +836) 1447825 ( +11724) 310802 ( +10228)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 26643 (+263) 177423 (+453) 56724 (+507)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 26477 ( +85) 170642 ( +59) 56637 ( +340)
Wed 13 May 2020 26553 ( +76) 170692 ( +50) 56941 ( +304)
Thu 14 May 2020 26619 ( +67) 170734 ( +42) 57212 ( +271)
Fri 15 May 2020 26678 ( +59) 170770 ( +36) 57454 ( +242)
Sat 16 May 2020 26730 ( +52) 170800 ( +30) 57669 ( +215)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 7661 (+92) 172576 (+697) 145617 (+1217)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 7615 ( +43) 171507 ( +363) 146198 ( +1049)
Wed 13 May 2020 7653 ( +38) 171832 ( +324) 147133 ( +935)
Thu 14 May 2020 7686 ( +33) 172121 ( +289) 147965 ( +831)
Fri 15 May 2020 7716 ( +29) 172379 ( +258) 148701 ( +736)
Sat 16 May 2020 7742 ( +26) 172609 ( +230) 149352 ( +651)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 5456 (+16) 42788 (+161) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 5484 ( +38) 42398 ( +112) nan ( +nan)
Wed 13 May 2020 5520 ( +36) 42497 ( +99) nan ( +nan)
Thu 14 May 2020 5554 ( +34) 42585 ( +88) nan ( +nan)
Fri 15 May 2020 5585 ( +31) 42662 ( +78) nan ( +nan)
Sat 16 May 2020 5614 ( +29) 42731 ( +69) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 8707 (+51) 53449 (+368) 13697 (+55)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 8782 ( +70) 52063 ( +141) 13643 ( +119)
Wed 13 May 2020 8846 ( +64) 52189 ( +126) 13756 ( +112)
Thu 14 May 2020 8905 ( +59) 52301 ( +112) 13862 ( +106)
Fri 15 May 2020 8958 ( +53) 52400 ( +99) 13962 ( +100)
Sat 16 May 2020 9007 ( +48) 52488 ( +88) 14056 ( +94)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 3256 (+31) 26670 (+348) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 3298 ( +47) 27046 ( +460) 5698 ( +194)
Wed 13 May 2020 3343 ( +45) 27494 ( +449) 5853 ( +155)
Thu 14 May 2020 3385 ( +42) 27932 ( +437) 5976 ( +123)
Fri 15 May 2020 3425 ( +40) 28358 ( +426) 6071 ( +96)
Sat 16 May 2020 3462 ( +38) 28772 ( +415) 6145 ( +74)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 811 (+11) 16326 (+330) 5816 (+118)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 823 ( +12) 16207 ( +221) 5950 ( +175)
Wed 13 May 2020 835 ( +11) 16420 ( +213) 6112 ( +162)
Thu 14 May 2020 845 ( +11) 16625 ( +205) 6260 ( +148)
Fri 15 May 2020 855 ( +10) 16822 ( +197) 6395 ( +135)
Sat 16 May 2020 865 ( +9) 17011 ( +189) 6518 ( +123)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 1845 (+12) 30344 (+39) 26800 (+200)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 1842 ( +4) 30053 ( +16) 26547 ( +110)
Wed 13 May 2020 1846 ( +4) 30066 ( +14) 26643 ( +96)
Thu 14 May 2020 1849 ( +3) 30078 ( +12) 26728 ( +84)
Fri 15 May 2020 1852 ( +3) 30089 ( +10) 26801 ( +74)
Sat 16 May 2020 1854 ( +2) 30098 ( +9) 26865 ( +64)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 11519 (+396) 168331 (+5632) 67384 (+2427)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 12219 ( +592) 180233 ( +9296) 64108 ( +1474)
Wed 13 May 2020 12803 ( +584) 189530 ( +9297) 65456 ( +1348)
Thu 14 May 2020 13374 ( +571) 198768 ( +9237) 66684 ( +1228)
Fri 15 May 2020 13930 ( +555) 207886 ( +9118) 67798 ( +1114)
Sat 16 May 2020 14466 ( +536) 216828 ( +8943) 68805 ( +1006)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 11 May 2020 6685 (+45) 109286 (+1683) 87422 (+1279)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 12 May 2020 6633 ( +30) 101905 ( +257) 84484 ( +380)
Wed 13 May 2020 6661 ( +28) 102139 ( +234) 84827 ( +343)
Thu 14 May 2020 6686 ( +26) 102353 ( +214) 85137 ( +310)
Fri 15 May 2020 6710 ( +24) 102548 ( +195) 85416 ( +279)
Sat 16 May 2020 6732 ( +22) 102725 ( +178) 85668 ( +252)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.